14-day forecast Agara

Forecast as of Nov 4, 02:59

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 16°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0.8 – 2.1 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 6.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 4.6 – 15.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 9°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 4°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.4 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow showers

High: 8°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 2.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 3°, precipitation 0.6 – 10.5 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: 4°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 6°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 1.2 – 4.7 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Snow showers

High: 5°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 2.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows -1° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 8°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows -2° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 6°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows -2° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 8°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 8°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 9°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows -1° – 9°, precipitation 0.9 – 2.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows -1° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 9°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 15°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 4.2 – 7.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 7°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:46

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

The models' forecasts as of Nov 3, 20:08

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.