14-day forecast Akhalsopeli

Forecast as of Nov 4, 02:59

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 2.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 23°, lows 12° – 14°, precipitation 1.1 – 5.9 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 33.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 26 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 10°, precipitation 45.8 – 56.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 2.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 78%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 4 – 17.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 39.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 13.9 – 37.1 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 32.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 51 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 6°, precipitation 17.6 – 36.6 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 11°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 6.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 53%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 23 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 15°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 17°, lows 7° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 14 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 7° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Showers

High: 17°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 11.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 7° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 11 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 9° – 13°, precipitation 14.3 – 14.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 20.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:50

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.