14-day forecast Alaverdi

Forecast as of Nov 5, 05:42

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 17°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 1.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 68%
Wind: 34 km/h, gusts 63 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 20°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 0.7 – 3.3 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 10.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 89%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 9.1 – 18.2 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 7.9 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 10°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 0° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows -1° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Partly cloudy

High: 13°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 13°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 1° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Partly cloudy

High: 12°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 1° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 4.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 0.8

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:38

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:37

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 15°, lows 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:36

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 16°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:35

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 17°, lows 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.