Tue, Nov 3
Fog
- High
- 24°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:05
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 22° – 23°, lows 11° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Aradu
Forecast as of Nov 3, 21:23
Back to AraduEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Thunderstorm
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 12°
- Precipitation
- 7.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:03
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 22°, lows 12° – 15°, precipitation 2.8 – 6.7 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Thunderstorm
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 12°
- Precipitation
- 19.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 98%
- Wind
- 19 km/h, gusts 38 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 18:02
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 21.4 – 32.1 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Showers
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.5 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 23 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 86%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 10.3 – 14.6 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Showers
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 1.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 43%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0.5 – 16 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 7%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 5.2 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 6%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 2° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 15%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 2° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 23%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 18°, lows 4° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Partly cloudy
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 23%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 0.6
Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 5° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 0.9 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Mostly clear
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 26%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 0.8
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 4° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 1.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 26%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2
Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 4° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 4.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Overcast
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2
Sunrise 08:06 · Sunset 17:51
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 17°, lows 8° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 4.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.