Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 30.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
- UV index
- 1
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 11 – 29.5 mm
14-day forecast Buzala
Forecast as of Nov 5, 09:49
Back to BuzalaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Fri, Nov 6
Light rain
- High
- 7°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 3.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 59%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 1.5
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 3.4 – 10.7 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows -3° – 0°, precipitation 0.3 – 1 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Partly cloudy
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -4° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -8° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 7°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 1%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6°, lows -8° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 18 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7°, lows -4° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Fog
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 0.3
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows -5° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 3.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 12%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
- UV index
- 0.3
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows -4° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 6.9 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 10°, lows -3°, precipitation 0 – 2.4 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:42
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 12°, lows -4° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:41
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 13°, lows -3° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 18partial day
Overcast
- High
- 13°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:40
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.