14-day forecast Chale

Forecast as of Nov 4, 19:09

Back to Chale

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Thunderstorm

High: 19°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 6.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 21°, lows 13° – 14°, precipitation 5.2 – 18.2 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 14°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 44 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 47.1 – 53.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 13.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 10.4 – 12.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 7°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 11.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 88%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 8°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 2.2 – 40.3 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 8°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 1°, precipitation 0 – 13.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 7%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 0° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 12°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 19°, lows 2° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 22°, lows 2° – 13°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 17°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 4° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 20° – 23°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 9.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 20°, lows 5° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 17 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:48

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 17°, lows 4° – 9°, precipitation 0.7 – 16.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.