14-day forecast Chazhashi

Forecast as of Nov 4, 01:11

Back to Chazhashi

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Rain

High: 5°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 3.9 – 10.5 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Snow showers

High: 3°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 34.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 3°, lows -2°, precipitation 30 – 39.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Snow showers

High: -2°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 0°, lows -6° – -5°, precipitation 0 – 2.5 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow showers

High: -3°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 11.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 99%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 0°, lows -9° – -5°, precipitation 4.3 – 13.2 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: -7°
Low: -12°
Precipitation: 4.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 89%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 56 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -7° – -2°, lows -13° – -6°, precipitation 1.4 – 6.9 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Fog

High: -5°
Low: -12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -5° – -2°, lows -15° – -12°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: -2°
Low: -9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 0°, lows -15° – -8°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Clear

High: -1°
Low: -13°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1°, lows -14° – -8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: -1°
Low: -13°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Snow showers

High: -1°
Low: -13°
Precipitation: 6.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 3°, lows -17° – -1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Snow showers

High: 0°
Low: -17°
Precipitation: 8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -17° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 2.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Light snow

High: 2°
Low: -13°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 3°, lows -13° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 15.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Snow showers

High: 2°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 2.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 0.8

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:44

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4°, lows -11° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 0.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.