14-day forecast Chikha

Forecast as of Nov 4, 00:04

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 17°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 2.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 24.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 19.1 – 48 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0.6 – 2.4 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 11 mm
Chance of precipitation: 78%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 6.6 – 10.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: 4°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 16.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 74%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 42 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 3.8 – 17.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 6°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows -1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 3.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 10°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 11%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Clear

High: 11°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 2° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 3° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 10.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 16°, lows 4° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 10.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 42 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 4° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 5.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.