Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 22°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:03
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 22° – 23°, lows 10° – 14°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Chkhoria
Forecast as of Nov 3, 17:18
Back to ChkhoriaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Thunderstorm
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 3.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 93%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 2
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:02
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 21°, lows 11° – 13°, precipitation 4.3 – 9.5 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Showers
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 24.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 24 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
- UV index
- 0.5
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 25.8 – 41.9 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Fog
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 13%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 1.9
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 13.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 78%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 1.4
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 6.2 – 13.8 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Light rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 48%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0.3 – 9 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 13%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 9.4 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Fog
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Fog
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 1° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 31%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Partly cloudy
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Fog
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 2.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 3° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 5.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Overcast
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 3 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:49
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 5° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 6.9 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.