Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Chokhuldi
Forecast as of Nov 3, 15:51
Back to ChokhuldiEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Light rain
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 5.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 85%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 1
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 8°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 5 – 18.3 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 13.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 95%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 1.7
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 22.3 – 26.4 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 6%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3.9
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 2°, lows -5° – -2°, precipitation 2.1 – 3.8 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Snow
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 9.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 58%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 2°, lows -7° – 0°, precipitation 9.5 – 12.3 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Light snow
- High
- -3°
- Low
- -8°
- Precipitation
- 1.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 43%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – -1°, lows -12° – -8°, precipitation 0.2 – 4.1 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 0°
- Low
- -8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 15%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3.7
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 1°, lows -18° – -9°, precipitation 0 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Mostly clear
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 3.7
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3°, lows -13° – -8°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -13°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 1 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 4°, lows -13° – -7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 6°, lows -12° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Light snow
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 3 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 7°, lows -10° – -1°, precipitation 0 – 1.9 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Fog
- High
- 4°
- Low
- -13°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 3 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 9°, lows -7° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Partly cloudy
- High
- 5°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 1 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 10°, lows -11° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Overcast
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 33%
- Wind
- 1 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:46
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 13°, lows -11° – 7°, precipitation 0.6 – 3.5 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.