14-day forecast Chvibiani

Forecast as of Nov 4, 09:31

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 5°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 9.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 3.9 – 6.5 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Snow showers

High: 3°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 32.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 53 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 3°, lows -3° – -2°, precipitation 28.1 – 52.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Snow grains

High: -1°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 83%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 0°, lows -12° – -6°, precipitation 0.1 – 0.4 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow showers

High: -2°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 7.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 0°, lows -10° – -5°, precipitation 6.3 – 9.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: -5°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 7.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -6° – -4°, lows -15° – -9°, precipitation 2.8 – 11.5 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Snow showers

High: -5°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -5° – -3°, lows -20° – -11°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: -2°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 1°, lows -19° – -10°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 0°
Low: -14°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1°, lows -19° – -7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 2°
Low: -14°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 4°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Snow showers

High: -1°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 6.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 2°, lows -6° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 6.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Snow showers

High: 0°
Low: -16°
Precipitation: 8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 4°, lows -16° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 8.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Light snow

High: 3°
Low: -16°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -16° – -4°, precipitation 0.1 – 5.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Snow showers

High: 3°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 3.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -4° – 3°, lows -12° – -2°, precipitation 3 – 5.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Snow showers

High: 1°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:43

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -5° – 1°, lows -14° – -1°, precipitation 0.3 – 9.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.