14-day forecast Dona

Forecast as of Nov 5, 02:16

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 19°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:32 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 22°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 0.7 – 3.5 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:33 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 9°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 20.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:34 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 11.5 – 22.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 4.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light rain

High: 8°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 23%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 15.2 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows -2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Partly cloudy

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows -2° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Partly cloudy

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:38

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 17°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:37

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 3° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Fog

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:36

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 3° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Fog

High: 12°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 2%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:35

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 3° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Fog

High: 13°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:34

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Partly cloudy

High: 16°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:34

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.