14-day forecast Dzlour-Daneti

Forecast as of Nov 5, 18:01

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 14°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 39.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 26 km/h, gusts 53 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 26.3 – 43.8 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 0.1 – 3.5 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 5.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 92%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 5.6 – 7.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light rain

High: 7°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 2.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 83%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 2.5 – 6.3 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 7°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 3.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 75%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 1.6

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 4.2 – 18.4 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 10°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 40%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0.2 – 3.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 17°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 17°, lows 7°, precipitation 0.2 – 3.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 19°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 20°, lows 7°, precipitation 1 – 29.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 18°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 20°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 1.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 23%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 21°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 0.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Drizzle

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 6.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 58 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 7.1 – 12.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Drizzle

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 1.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:44

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 2° – 7°, precipitation 1.7 – 17.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.