Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 20°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 20°, lows 6° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Ghari
Forecast as of Nov 3, 06:32
Back to GhariEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 2.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 62%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.2
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 1 – 2.6 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 48.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 0.5
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 25.7 – 47.6 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 35%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 1.7 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Snow showers
- High
- 4°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 16.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 76%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
- UV index
- 2.2
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 2.5 – 15.5 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Snow showers
- High
- 3°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 1.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 76%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -2° – 1°, precipitation 0.5 – 3.2 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Light rain
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 29%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 10°, lows -4° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Fog
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows -3° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Fog
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9°, lows -2° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Mostly clear
- High
- 10°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows -3° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Drizzle
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 4.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 4 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Drizzle
- High
- 7°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 2.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 21%
- Wind
- 3 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 13°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 2.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Partly cloudy
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 15°, lows -3° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -4°
- Precipitation
- 1.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 30%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 0.4
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:44
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows -4° – 8°, precipitation 1.7 – 1.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.