14-day forecast Gochajikhaishi

Forecast as of Nov 5, 02:06

Back to Gochajikhaishi

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 35.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 32 km/h, gusts 60 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 9° – 11°, precipitation 21.8 – 35.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 1.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 38%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 0.9 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 17.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 14 – 17 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light rain

High: 8°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 3.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 8.4 – 25.8 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 61%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 21.5 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Fog

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 3.6 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 29 km/h, gusts 53 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Drizzle

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 6.7 – 13.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 16°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 3° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 19°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 3.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 20°, lows 8° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18°, lows 7° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Overcast

High: 21°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:47

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 19° – 21°, lows 7° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.