Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 21°
- Low
- 12°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 21°, lows 12° – 13°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Ivantsminda
Forecast as of Nov 3, 12:34
Back to IvantsmindaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 1.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 28%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 2 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 29.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 33 km/h, gusts 67 km/h
- UV index
- 0.3
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12°, lows 8°, precipitation 17.5 – 51.5 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Showers
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 26%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
- UV index
- 1.7
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0.1 – 1.7 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Rain
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 15.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 84%
- Wind
- 24 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 8°, lows 4°, precipitation 4.2 – 15.5 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Snow showers
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 9.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 89%
- Wind
- 25 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5°, lows 2°, precipitation 4.5 – 13.8 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 41%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows -2° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Partly cloudy
- High
- 11°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows -2° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Mostly clear
- High
- 11°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 19%
- Wind
- 19 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13°, lows -1° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Partly cloudy
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 6.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Clear
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
- UV index
- 2.2
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 15°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 2.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Partly cloudy
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 21 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 17°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 34%
- Wind
- 20 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 5° – 10°, precipitation 1.4 – 4.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.