14-day forecast Kaeri

Forecast as of Nov 3, 11:12

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Tue, Nov 3

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 1° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 6.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 75%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9°, lows 5°, precipitation 4.2 – 19.4 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 7°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 24.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 24 – 39.8 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 4°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 4°, lows -5° – 1°, precipitation 0.2 – 13 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 2°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 13.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 74%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -6° – -3°, precipitation 6.5 – 15.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light snow

High: -1°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 0.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 68%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0.9 – 1.5 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 3°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 5°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4°, lows -13° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 4°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows -11° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Mostly clear

High: 3°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 6°, lows -12° – -4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Light snow

High: 3°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 1.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 8°, lows -11° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 1.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Light snow

High: 4°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows -8° – -1°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Fog

High: 4°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 7°, lows -11° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Drizzle

High: 6°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 1.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:45

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows -10° – 2°, precipitation 1.8 – 1.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.