14-day forecast Khabume

Forecast as of Nov 4, 03:02

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Thunderstorm

High: 19°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 5.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 22°, lows 12° – 14°, precipitation 3.9 – 13 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 14°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 37.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 29.3 – 43.9 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Fog

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows 6°, precipitation 0 – 3.2 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 18 mm
Chance of precipitation: 96%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows 4° – 9°, precipitation 9.7 – 23.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 8°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 13.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 89%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 2.1 – 14.7 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 9°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 22.7 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 14°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 3.7 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 10 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 20°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Drizzle

High: 16°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 1.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 20°, lows 3° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 1.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 16°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 12.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 8° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 16.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 11.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:48

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.