14-day forecast Khulgumo

Forecast as of Nov 5, 09:15

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 9°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 4.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 38 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 3.5 – 5.7 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 3°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows -1° – 0°, precipitation 0.1 – 0.5 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow

High: 2°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 89%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 2°, lows -4° – 0°, precipitation 6.8 – 11.5 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: -1°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 60%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 0°, lows -9° – -4°, precipitation 0.3 – 4.9 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light snow

High: -2°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 4.2

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – -2°, lows -10° – -6°, precipitation 0.9 – 2 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 1°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 4.2

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 2°, lows -10° – -8°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 4°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 4°, lows -9° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2°, lows -8° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 4°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Partly cloudy

High: 4°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 5°, lows -5° – -1°, precipitation 0 – 4.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Partly cloudy

High: 6°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 7°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 1.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 6°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 7°, lows -10° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 8°, lows -9° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 8°, lows -7° – -1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.