Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 22°
- Low
- 14°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 18:08
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 22°, lows 14° – 18°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Kolkhida
Forecast as of Nov 3, 15:47
Back to KolkhidaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Rain
- High
- 19°
- Low
- 16°
- Precipitation
- 15.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 98%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 18:07
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19°, lows 14° – 16°, precipitation 9.7 – 15.7 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 12°
- Precipitation
- 13.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 90%
- Wind
- 22 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 18:06
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 13.1 – 19.3 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Light rain
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 33%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 18:05
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 7° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Rain
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 15.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 78%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 18:04
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 6.1 – 19.9 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 18:02
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 2.9 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Fog
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 4° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Partly cloudy
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:06 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 4° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 26%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:07 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 6° – 13°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Clear
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 27%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 08:08 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 18°, lows 6° – 16°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 23%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 1.3
Sunrise 08:09 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 7° – 18°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 23%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.2
Sunrise 08:11 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 21°, lows 8° – 18°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 31%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
- UV index
- 2.1
Sunrise 08:12 · Sunset 17:54
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 20°, lows 9° – 16°, precipitation 0 – 5 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.