Tue, Nov 3
Fog
- High
- 24°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 18:04
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 24°, lows 11° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Kvachalati
Forecast as of Nov 3, 21:32
Back to KvachalatiEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 19°
- Low
- 13°
- Precipitation
- 3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 80%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:03
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 23°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 3.1 – 6.8 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Thunderstorm
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 46.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 56 km/h
- UV index
- 0.4
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:02
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 10°, precipitation 45.1 – 91.5 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Rain
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 15.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 86%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 1.1
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 4.1 – 17.1 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Rain
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 38.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 98%
- Wind
- 27 km/h, gusts 50 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 17.4 – 37.1 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Showers
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 10.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 96%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
- UV index
- 1.7
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9°, lows 6°, precipitation 12.6 – 36.6 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Showers
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 6.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 66%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 5°, precipitation 0 – 23 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Partly cloudy
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Mostly clear
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 3° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 20°, lows 4° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Overcast
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 0.5
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 7° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 1.5 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Mostly clear
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 7° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 1.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 32%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 1.8
Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 20°, lows 7° – 16°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Light rain
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 14.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 37%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 1.3
Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:51
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 18°, lows 9° – 14°, precipitation 14.3 – 17 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.