Thu, Nov 5
Rain
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 37.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 21 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
- UV index
- 0.6
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 6°, precipitation 25.5 – 56.1 mm
14-day forecast Kveda Orghuli
Forecast as of Nov 5, 17:07
Back to Kveda OrghuliEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Fri, Nov 6
Fog
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0.3 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 28%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Showers
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 76%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 1.9
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 3.4 – 6.2 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Light rain
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 3.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 68%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 8°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 2.1 – 3.7 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Snow showers
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 6.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 58%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 6°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 4.1 – 6.9 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 12%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
Thu, Nov 12
Light rain
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 28%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: high
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12°, lows 1°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 27%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 1.8
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 15°, lows 2° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 8.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Drizzle
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 1.2
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 17°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0.6 – 22 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 16°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Drizzle
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 23%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 1.5
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 18°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17
Drizzle
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 10.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 27%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12°, lows 1° – 11°, precipitation 11.6 – 15 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 18partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 2.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 22 km/h, gusts 59 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:42
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 2.4 – 8.4 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.