14-day forecast Kvemo Aranisi

Forecast as of Nov 5, 18:29

Back to Kvemo Aranisi

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 4.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 53%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 3.5 – 5.1 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 7°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 5.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 5.2 – 11.1 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0.1 – 1 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 51 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows -3° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 9°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 1%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 23 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows -1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Drizzle

High: 7°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 58 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:38

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 15°, lows 0° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Drizzle

High: 6°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 4.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:38

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows -1° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 4.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.