14-day forecast Kvitiri

Forecast as of Nov 4, 01:52

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 19°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 21°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 1.3 – 3.5 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 32.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 32 km/h, gusts 59 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 10°, precipitation 26.2 – 30.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 3.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 61%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 1.8 – 3.9 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 23.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 94%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 10.5 – 30.1 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 7°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 23.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 85%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 6°, precipitation 7.3 – 12.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 3.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 11 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 2.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 15°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 18°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 16°, lows 8° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 16°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 9.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 26 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 8° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 6.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 32 km/h, gusts 60 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 9° – 13°, precipitation 0 – 3.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 5.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 31 km/h, gusts 59 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:47

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 9° – 13°, precipitation 3.8 – 12.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

The models' forecasts as of Nov 3, 19:40

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.