14-day forecast Lentekhi

Forecast as of Nov 4, 06:48

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 15°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 6.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 1.7

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 8° – 11°, precipitation 5.3 – 8.1 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 16.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 23.8 – 62.7 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Fog

High: 9°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 10.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 94%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 12.5 – 18.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light rain

High: 4°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 3.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 84%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -4° – -1°, precipitation 2.5 – 22 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 5°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 7°, lows -9° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Partly cloudy

High: 8°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 11°, lows -8° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 2 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Fog

High: 8°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8°, lows -9° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12°, lows -7° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 7°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 5.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 16°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 7°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 9.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 17°, lows -7° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 9.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Fog

High: 12°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 41%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows -8° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 15.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 10°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 3.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 39%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 11°, lows -2° – 6°, precipitation 2.3 – 2.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 9°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 3.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:45

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 9°, lows -3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 3.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.