14-day forecast Letsitskhivie

Forecast as of Nov 5, 17:19

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 60.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 30 km/h, gusts 63 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 54.7 – 68.6 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 28.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 10.9 – 21.4 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 20.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 38 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 10.4 – 26.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Thunderstorm

High: 7°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 19.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 92%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 2.7 – 21 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 15°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Light rain

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 2.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 17°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 42%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 18°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0.6 – 6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Partly cloudy

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 20°, lows 6° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 28.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 20°, lows 5° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Showers

High: 21°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 21°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 3.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Showers

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 21.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 64 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 3° – 10°, precipitation 14.1 – 24 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Drizzle

High: 14°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:46

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 16°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0.1 – 26.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.