14-day forecast Likhauri

Forecast as of Nov 4, 17:25

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 21°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 83%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 23°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 0.4 – 4.4 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 16°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 25.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 29 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 9° – 11°, precipitation 29.3 – 60.5 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 7.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 83%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0.2 – 9 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 12°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 36.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 19.5 – 42 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 8°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 15.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 6°, precipitation 31.4 – 35.5 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 9.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 79%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 12°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 1.4 – 43.4 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 13.8 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 3° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 3° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 16°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 22°, lows 3° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 19°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 19°, lows 7° – 15°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 19°, lows 9°, precipitation 0 – 66.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 20°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 19 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Showers

High: 17°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 2.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 42%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 1.4

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:50

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 18°, lows 5° – 11°, precipitation 2.2 – 13.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.