14-day forecast Mamkhuti

Forecast as of Nov 3, 13:48

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Tue, Nov 3

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:34 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

Wed, Nov 4

Fog

High: 18°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18°, lows 9° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.8 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 18°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 3.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 18°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 2.5 – 4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0.4 – 0.6 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 6.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 42%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 1.6 – 11.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 10°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Mostly clear

High: 10°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows -1° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Mostly clear

High: 9°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows -1° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 10°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 0° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 9°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 1.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 16°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 15°, lows 2° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Drizzle

High: 7°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 11%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:41

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.