14-day forecast Murjakheti

Forecast as of Nov 4, 04:49

Back to Murjakheti

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Thunderstorm

High: 12°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 78%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 2.4 – 5.8 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 7°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 4.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 85%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 3 – 11.6 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Snow showers

High: 4°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 6°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.8 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow showers

High: 2°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 5.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -3° – 0°, precipitation 2.1 – 19.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: 0°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 7.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 46%
Wind: 26 km/h, gusts 51 km/h
UV index: 4.1

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 1°, lows -5°, precipitation 1.8 – 8.2 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light snow

High: 1°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 7%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 1°, lows -9° – -5°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Mostly clear

High: 4°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -10° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Fog

High: 1°
Low: -9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows -8° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: -9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -8° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 17%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 3°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows -8° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Fog

High: 5°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 10°, lows -8° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Fog

High: 6°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 8°, lows -3° – 3°, precipitation 1.5 – 5.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 3°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.