14-day forecast Murkmeli

Forecast as of Nov 5, 19:15

Back to Murkmeli

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Snow showers

High: 3°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 42.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 1.9

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2°, lows -6° – -2°, precipitation 34.2 – 47.3 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Snow showers

High: -1°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 1.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 58%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – -1°, lows -11° – -4°, precipitation 0 – 2.5 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow

High: -2°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 8.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – -1°, lows -8° – -4°, precipitation 5.8 – 9.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: -4°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 12 mm
Chance of precipitation: 96%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -4° – -3°, lows -12° – -7°, precipitation 4.4 – 17.6 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Snow showers

High: -5°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 3.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 65%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.8

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -6° – -5°, lows -16° – -10°, precipitation 0.6 – 4.5 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: -4°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -4° – -3°, lows -17° – -11°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 0°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -3° – 0°, lows -16° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Light snow

High: -1°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 1.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -12° – -11°, precipitation 0 – 4.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 2°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -12° – -6°, precipitation 0 – 10.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Fog

High: 4°
Low: -12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 5°, lows -11° – -9°, precipitation 0 – 28.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 5°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 5°, lows -11° – -10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Heavy snow

High: 5°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 6.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 6°, lows -7° – -6°, precipitation 0.4 – 4.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Heavy snow

High: 1°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 21.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 1°, lows -17° – -1°, precipitation 23.7 – 29.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Snow

High: -1°
Low: -17°
Precipitation: 2.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 26 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:42

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -17° – -7°, precipitation 2.7 – 25.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.