14-day forecast Ochane

Forecast as of Nov 5, 10:46

Back to Ochane

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 14°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 42.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 1.7

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 51.8 – 61.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 0.7 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 8.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 8.6 – 14.8 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 7°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 9.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 7°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 3.8 – 35.3 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 57%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 0.6 – 12.7 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1.4 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 14.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 15°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 0.2

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 15°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 22.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Partly cloudy

High: 17°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 0.7

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 18°, lows 5° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 2.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 19°, lows 5° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 2 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 18°, lows 10°, precipitation 4.2 – 6.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Overcast

High: 20°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:05 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 21°, lows 2° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 27.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Overcast

High: 21°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:06 · Sunset 17:47

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 22°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.