Wed, Nov 4
Overcast
- High
- 17°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17°, lows 10°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm
14-day forecast Okrokana
Forecast as of Nov 4, 07:50
Back to OkrokanaEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Thu, Nov 5
Showers
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 4.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 50%
- Wind
- 27 km/h, gusts 68 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 3.9 – 5.5 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Light rain
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 24 km/h, gusts 66 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 4.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 30%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 58 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 5°, precipitation 0.2 – 11.8 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 33 km/h, gusts 77 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 2%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 7°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 2%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 12°, lows 0° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows 0° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Overcast
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 2 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Drizzle
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 1.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:42
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 1° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 1.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 2.1
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:41
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 1° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Partly cloudy
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 1.5
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:40
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 16°, lows 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 9.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 21%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:40
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 9.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.