14-day forecast Onanauri

Forecast as of Nov 5, 07:37

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 21°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 65%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:32 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 21° – 22°, lows 11° – 13°, precipitation 0.4 – 1.5 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:33 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 9°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 15.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 97%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 12.7 – 15.4 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 15°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 6.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 15°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 4.8 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 1.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 2° – 6°, precipitation 0.9 – 7.8 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Fog

High: 11°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 0%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 10 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 2%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 16°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:38

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Fog

High: 13°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:37

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13°, lows 5° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Fog

High: 13°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:36

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 8%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:35

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 14°, lows 6°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17

Partly cloudy

High: 17°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:34

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 17°, lows 2° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 18partial day

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:33

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 17°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.