Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 4.1
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm
14-day forecast Patara Arakali
Forecast as of Nov 3, 11:41
Back to Patara ArakaliEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 3.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 65%
- Wind
- 12 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 3.9
Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 1.8 – 4.4 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Thunderstorm
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 6.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 98%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
- UV index
- 1.7
Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 8°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 9 – 10.4 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Light snow
- High
- 3°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 1.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -2° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 4.9 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Snow showers
- High
- 2°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 5.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 40%
- Wind
- 19 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 4°, lows -3°, precipitation 1.2 – 6.3 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Snow showers
- High
- -2°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 2.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 43%
- Wind
- 21 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -2° – 1°, lows -8° – -4°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 0°
- Low
- -6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 4.1
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 5°, lows -8° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Clear
- High
- 3°
- Low
- -10°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 3.9
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 6°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Fog
- High
- -1°
- Low
- -10°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3.8
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 1°, lows -7° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 3.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -10°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -10° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Snow showers
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -7°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 3°, lows -5° – -3°, precipitation 0 – 3.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Snow showers
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 6°, lows -8° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 6.4 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 0°
- Low
- -11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 7°, lows -10° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Snow
- High
- 1°
- Low
- -5°
- Precipitation
- 6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 20%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:46
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 7°, lows -8° – 1°, precipitation 0.1 – 0.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.