Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 24°
- Low
- 13°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 24° – 25°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Pirveli Sviri
Forecast as of Nov 3, 20:47
Back to Pirveli SviriEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Showers
- High
- 19°
- Low
- 13°
- Precipitation
- 0.8 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 80%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 22°, lows 13° – 14°, precipitation 0.1 – 1.1 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Thunderstorm
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 35.9 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
- UV index
- 0.8
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:57
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 9° – 10°, precipitation 20.7 – 37.8 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Showers
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 2.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 63%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 0.9
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 1.8 – 4.1 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 11 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 85%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 7.7 – 11.9 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Showers
- High
- 7°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 13.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 84%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
- UV index
- 1.6
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 10°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 4.5 – 20.6 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Showers
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 5.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 54%
- Wind
- 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 11°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 8.5 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Mostly clear
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 15%
- Wind
- 21 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 16°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Clear
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 19%
- Wind
- 20 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 4.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
- UV index
- 2.2
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 2.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 5.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 27%
- Wind
- 25 km/h, gusts 51 km/h
- UV index
- 1.8
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:46
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 17°, lows 7° – 12°, precipitation 5 – 5.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.