14-day forecast Kipiantubani

Forecast as of Nov 4, 07:34

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 15°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 2.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 1.9 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 28.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 61 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 20.9 – 27.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 22 km/h, gusts 45 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0.4 – 2.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 8°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 4.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 73%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 4.3 – 10.2 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: 4°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 4.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 25 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 5°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 3.8 – 37.7 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Rain

High: 4°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 9.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 77%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 3° – 4°, lows -4° – 2°, precipitation 1.8 – 12.6 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Light rain

High: 7°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 7°, lows -4° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Fog

High: 7°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 6%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 42 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7°, lows -2° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 8°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9°, lows -2° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 6°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 13°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 5°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 10 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 14°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 10.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 8°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 0° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 10.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 3° – 13°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 10.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 10°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 10.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:43

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 10°, lows -2° – 6°, precipitation 1.4 – 10.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.