Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 3.3
Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 6° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Kvavili
Forecast as of Nov 3, 19:19
Back to KvaviliEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Light rain
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 5° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Light rain
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 53%
- Wind
- 23 km/h, gusts 50 km/h
- UV index
- 1.1
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 1.8 – 6.7 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 2%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Fog
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 24 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 20.8 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 7%
- Wind
- 26 km/h, gusts 64 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 9°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 2 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Overcast
- High
- 6°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 13 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows -1° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 1.6 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Partly cloudy
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 3%
- Wind
- 11 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows -2° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Partly cloudy
- High
- 7°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 4%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows -3° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 12%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows -2° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Drizzle
- High
- 9°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
- UV index
- 2.8
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:42
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows -2° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Drizzle
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0.4 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
- UV index
- 1.1
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:41
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows -2° – 7°, precipitation 0.5 – 1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 2.4
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:40
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 15°, lows -1° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 7°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 0.9
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:39
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 11°, lows -1° – 8°, precipitation 0.1 – 0.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.