14-day forecast Rapitsa

Forecast as of Nov 4, 02:37

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 19°
Low: 16°
Precipitation: 11.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 18:07

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 14° – 16°, precipitation 8.8 – 29 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Showers

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 7.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 18:06

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 13.6 – 24.9 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 23%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 18:05

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 2.2 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 13.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 18:04

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 10.8 – 20.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 27%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.9 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 4° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:06 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14°, lows 4° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Drizzle

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 6.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 08:07 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 27.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 43 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:08 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 21.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 26%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 0.7

Sunrise 08:09 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 7° – 15°, precipitation 0 – 16.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Showers

High: 13°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 18.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 1.1

Sunrise 08:11 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 8° – 15°, precipitation 0 – 18.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Showers

High: 14°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 24.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:12 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 9° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 19.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 1.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 1.7

Sunrise 08:13 · Sunset 17:53

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.