14-day forecast Sabokuchavo

Forecast as of Nov 4, 20:36

Back to Sabokuchavo

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 21°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 90%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 21° – 23°, lows 14° – 15°, precipitation 1.8 – 13 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 31.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 29 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
UV index: 1.2

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 30.8 – 45.5 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 13°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 43%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 17.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 31 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 11.4 – 17.5 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 7.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 91%
Wind: 33 km/h, gusts 63 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 7.2 – 19.1 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 3.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 58%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 11°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0.3 – 13.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 21 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 5° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 35%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 18°, lows 3° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 16°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 21°, lows 3° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 17°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 29 km/h, gusts 54 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 8° – 14°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 39 km/h, gusts 72 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 19° – 21°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 9.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 42 km/h, gusts 78 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 19°, lows 8° – 12°, precipitation 0 – 30.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Showers

High: 16°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 2.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 41%
Wind: 37 km/h, gusts 70 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:48

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 17°, lows 6° – 11°, precipitation 2.1 – 3.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.