14-day forecast Sagvaramio

Forecast as of Nov 4, 19:51

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Thunderstorm

High: 21°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 6.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 21° – 23°, lows 14° – 15°, precipitation 3 – 5.4 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 16°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 35.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 51 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 36.8 – 38.7 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 0.7 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 21.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 30 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 8.8 – 21 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 12.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 94%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 50 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 7.2 – 22.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 10°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 5.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 54%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0.5 – 17 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Fog

High: 14°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 13° – 14°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 60 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 18°, lows 6° – 11°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 21°, lows 5° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 18°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 58 km/h
UV index: 2.2

Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 19°, lows 9° – 14°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 20°
Low: 13°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 21%
Wind: 38 km/h, gusts 81 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 20° – 21°, lows 10° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 9.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 20°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 39 km/h, gusts 83 km/h
UV index: 0.5

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 20°, lows 8° – 14°, precipitation 0 – 33.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 16°
Low: 14°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 36 km/h, gusts 76 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 08:04 · Sunset 17:49

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 17°, lows 6° – 12°, precipitation 1.2 – 4.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.