Wed, Nov 4
Overcast
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 10%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:31 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 10° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Shorokhi
Forecast as of Nov 4, 16:19
Back to ShorokhiEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Thu, Nov 5
Showers
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 10°
- Precipitation
- 2.8 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 43%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 31 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:32 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 18° – 20°, lows 10° – 11°, precipitation 0.6 – 2.2 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 6%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:33 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 14°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 9.8 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 50%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 7.3 – 13.9 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:36 · Sunset 17:42
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 14°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Partly cloudy
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 9 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:41
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 11.7 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Partly cloudy
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 1%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 8 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:40
Confidence: low
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows -2° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:39
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows -2° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Fog
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 4%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:41 · Sunset 17:38
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 15°, lows 0° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Fog
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 0°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 5%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:37
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 15°, lows 0° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Fog
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 9%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:36
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 15°, lows 2° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Mostly clear
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 2%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:36
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 17°, lows 3° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16
Fog
- High
- 13°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 6 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
- UV index
- 0.9
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:35
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 17°, lows 3° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 5.2 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Tue, Nov 17partial day
Fog
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 4 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 0.6
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:34
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 4° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 3.8 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.