Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 24°
- Low
- 15°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 19 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
- UV index
- 3.6
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 18:01
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 23° – 25°, lows 14° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Shua Gora
Forecast as of Nov 3, 20:26
Back to Shua GoraEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Rain
- High
- 19°
- Low
- 15°
- Precipitation
- 6.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 78%
- Wind
- 8 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 18:00
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 21°, lows 14°, precipitation 0.5 – 2.4 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Thunderstorm
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 11°
- Precipitation
- 26.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 100%
- Wind
- 37 km/h, gusts 67 km/h
- UV index
- 0.8
Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:59
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 10°, precipitation 29.4 – 34.8 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Light rain
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 3.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 80%
- Wind
- 21 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:58
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 4.2 – 6.5 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Showers
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 14.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 84%
- Wind
- 35 km/h, gusts 63 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:56
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 11°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 10.5 – 25.5 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Rain
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 11.8 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 89%
- Wind
- 25 km/h, gusts 52 km/h
- UV index
- 1
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 10°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 6.7 – 18.6 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Light rain
- High
- 11°
- Low
- 6°
- Precipitation
- 1.1 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 54%
- Wind
- 5 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 1.1 – 13.4 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 16%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 14°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Mostly clear
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 22 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: high
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Overcast
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 5°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
- UV index
- 2.5
Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Drizzle
- High
- 15°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0.6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 14%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 19°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Clear
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 25 km/h, gusts 47 km/h
- UV index
- 0.7
Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:49
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 16° – 18°, lows 7° – 12°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Overcast
- High
- 14°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 30 km/h, gusts 59 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 22°, lows 6° – 15°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 7.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 24%
- Wind
- 30 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
- UV index
- 2.1
Sunrise 08:00 · Sunset 17:48
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 20°, lows 7° – 15°, precipitation 0 – 7.7 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.