14-day forecast Shuakhevi

Forecast as of Nov 4, 11:55

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 20°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 2.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 68%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 18:03

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 19° – 23°, lows 12° – 14°, precipitation 1.4 – 9.6 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 14°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 53.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 18:02

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 14° – 15°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 51.1 – 79.8 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Light rain

High: 11°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 2.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 80%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 18:01

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 3.1 – 7.6 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 11 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 10.6 – 50.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Rain

High: 6°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 13.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 8°, lows 3° – 5°, precipitation 11.6 – 72 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Rain

High: 5°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 19.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 92%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 34 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows -2° – 3°, precipitation 2 – 35.8 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 13°, lows -5° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 6.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Light snow

High: 16°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 32%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 13°, lows -6° – 3°, precipitation 0.1 – 2.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Light snow

High: 10°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 0.9

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 12°, lows -3° – 6°, precipitation 1.1 – 1.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 14°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 14°, lows -3° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 17°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 12° – 18°, lows -1° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 0.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 19°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 45%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 20°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 45.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 18°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 20°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 36.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 1.3

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:50

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 18°, lows -1° – 4°, precipitation 0.8 – 23.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.