14-day forecast Skhvitori

Forecast as of Nov 4, 13:52

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Showers

High: 18°
Low: 12°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 58%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 11° – 12°, precipitation 0.5 – 2.4 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 12°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 21.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 59 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 20.1 – 47.4 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 96%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 3° – 6°, precipitation 3.9 – 8.9 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Showers

High: 5°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 4.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 7°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 2.7 – 10 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Showers

High: 6°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 0.2 – 4.4 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Fog

High: 10°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 12°, lows 0° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 19%
Wind: 18 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 11°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 0.7

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows -1° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Partly cloudy

High: 13°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 11 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 19°, lows -1° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 14°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 23%
Wind: 15 km/h, gusts 32 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:55 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 2° – 10°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 41%
Wind: 26 km/h, gusts 56 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 7°, precipitation 0 – 12.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 27 km/h, gusts 57 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 14°, lows 3° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 3.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 15°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 33%
Wind: 23 km/h, gusts 49 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:43

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 15°, lows 2° – 9°, precipitation 0.1 – 1.4 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.