14-day forecast Sno

Forecast as of Nov 4, 00:01

Back to Sno

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 40%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 1° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 1.6 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 7°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 2.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 88%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows 1° – 3°, precipitation 4.8 – 7.7 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 39 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 5°, lows -1° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 1.8 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Overcast

High: 3°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 3°, lows -4° – -2°, precipitation 0 – 21.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Mostly clear

High: -1°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 9%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 30 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 2°, lows -16° – -4°, precipitation 0 – 0.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Fog

High: -1°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -19° – -5°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Snow grains

High: 0°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -2° – 2°, lows -19° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Snow grains

High: -2°
Low: -13°
Precipitation: 0.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 11%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs -1° – 4°, lows -16° – -4°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 0°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 5°, lows -10° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Light snow

High: 0°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 8°, lows -14° – 0°, precipitation 0 – 0.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Snow showers

High: 1°
Low: -9°
Precipitation: 4.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 1° – 10°, lows -14° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 1°
Low: -11°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 11°, lows -12° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Drizzle

High: 3°
Low: -9°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 10%
Wind: 3 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 1.5

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:38

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 4° – 10°, lows -9° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

The models' forecasts as of Nov 3, 15:55

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.