14-day forecast Soli

Forecast as of Nov 4, 18:47

Back to Soli

Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Light rain

High: 9°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 3.8 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 1

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:58

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9°, lows 5°, precipitation 3 – 19.8 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Snow showers

High: 7°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 23.7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 95%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6°, lows -1° – 2°, precipitation 24.5 – 34.8 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Snow showers

High: 4°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 4

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 1° – 4°, lows -7° – 0°, precipitation 0.6 – 1.5 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Snow showers

High: 5°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 8.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 79%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 2° – 5°, lows -8° – -1°, precipitation 7.5 – 19.3 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Snow showers

High: 1°
Low: -5°
Precipitation: 2.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 50%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.6

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 1°, lows -9° – -4°, precipitation 3.7 – 25.9 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Overcast

High: -1°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 5%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.7

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs -1° – 0°, lows -14° – -7°, precipitation 0 – 1.1 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Mostly clear

High: 4°
Low: -8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 11%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 0° – 5°, lows -14° – -6°, precipitation 0 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 4°
Low: -10°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 6°, lows -14° – -5°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Fog

High: 2°
Low: -12°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.5

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 7°, lows -15° – 1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 4°
Low: -15°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 23%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 7°, lows -15° – 2°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Mostly clear

High: 9°
Low: -7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows -6° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: -4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 12°, lows -3° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 5.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 1.4

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 5° – 12°, lows -2°, precipitation 0 – 28.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 6°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 2.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:03 · Sunset 17:44

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 0° – 8°, lows -5° – -2°, precipitation 2.3 – 10.7 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.