14-day forecast Ternali

Forecast as of Nov 4, 09:25

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Wed, Nov 4

Rain

High: 20°
Low: 15°
Precipitation: 6.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 98%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 24 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 18:00

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 20° – 23°, lows 13° – 15°, precipitation 1.6 – 6.9 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Thunderstorm

High: 15°
Low: 11°
Precipitation: 40.5 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 32 km/h, gusts 61 km/h
UV index: 0.6

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:59

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 8° – 10°, precipitation 44 – 63.2 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Showers

High: 12°
Low: 9°
Precipitation: 3.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 28%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.3

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 13°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Rain

High: 10°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 22.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows 6° – 9°, precipitation 8 – 21.6 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Thunderstorm

High: 8°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 23.9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 4° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 23.2 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Thunderstorm

High: 8°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 15.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 67%
Wind: 20 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 16 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 13%
Wind: 14 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 2.7

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 12° – 16°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 0 – 0.5 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 7°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 15%
Wind: 19 km/h, gusts 44 km/h
UV index: 2

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 15°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 17°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 31%
Wind: 23 km/h, gusts 48 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 18° – 19°, lows 7° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Drizzle

High: 14°
Low: 8°
Precipitation: 5.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 12 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 22°, lows 8° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 4.8 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Drizzle

High: 11°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 9 mm
Chance of precipitation: 30%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 11° – 21°, lows 6° – 11°, precipitation 0 – 9.6 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Drizzle

High: 14°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 44%
Wind: 13 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 0.3

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 13° – 15°, lows 6° – 7°, precipitation 5.7 – 15.9 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 9.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 34%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 1.8

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 4° – 9°, precipitation 2.2 – 8.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Drizzle

High: 13°
Low: 10°
Precipitation: 8.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 37%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 11 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:46

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 13°, lows 4° – 10°, precipitation 0.5 – 9.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.