14-day forecast Tianeti

Forecast as of Nov 3, 09:12

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Tue, Nov 3

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 25%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:34 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15° – 16°, lows 6° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

Wed, Nov 4

Fog

High: 15°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 12 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:35 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 15°, lows 4° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 0.1 mm

Thu, Nov 5

Light rain

High: 12°
Low: 6°
Precipitation: 2.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 58%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 41 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:37 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 5° – 6°, precipitation 3.4 – 6.6 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Overcast

High: 8°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 4%
Wind: 16 km/h, gusts 36 km/h
UV index: 3.4

Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 8°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.9 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 7°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 2.4 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 17 km/h, gusts 40 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 2.7 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Partly cloudy

High: 4°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 24 km/h, gusts 66 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4°, lows -2° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Partly cloudy

High: 6°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 1%
Wind: 9 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:45

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 6°, lows -3° – -2°, precipitation 0 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 3.1

Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:44

Confidence: high

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 9°, lows -3° – -1°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 6°
Low: -2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 16 km/h
UV index: 2.4

Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:43

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7°, lows -2° – 3°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Thu, Nov 12

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.3

Sunrise 07:46 · Sunset 17:42

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 8°, lows -2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 0.3 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Snow

High: 2°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 7 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 23 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:41

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 2° – 8°, lows -1° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 6.5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Snow

High: 6°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 2.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 22%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:40

Confidence: medium

ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 10°, lows 1° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 3.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Drizzle

High: 6°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 1.2 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 20 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:39

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 13°, lows -2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 1.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16partial day

Overcast

High: 7°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 12%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.6

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:38

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 12°, lows -3° – 6°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.