Tue, Nov 3
Overcast
- High
- 18°
- Low
- 9°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 0%
- Wind
- 15 km/h, gusts 28 km/h
- UV index
- 3.5
Sunrise 07:38 · Sunset 17:55
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 17° – 18°, lows 8° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm
14-day forecast Tkviavi
Forecast as of Nov 3, 06:52
Back to TkviaviEach day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.
Wed, Nov 4
Overcast
- High
- 16°
- Low
- 8°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 22%
- Wind
- 7 km/h, gusts 14 km/h
- UV index
- 2.9
Sunrise 07:39 · Sunset 17:54
Confidence: medium
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 16° – 17°, lows 7° – 10°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm
Thu, Nov 5
Light rain
- High
- 12°
- Low
- 7°
- Precipitation
- 10.7 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 92%
- Wind
- 35 km/h, gusts 68 km/h
- UV index
- 0.9
Sunrise 07:40 · Sunset 17:53
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 12°, lows 7°, precipitation 8.7 – 10.8 mm
Fri, Nov 6
Overcast
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 25 km/h, gusts 46 km/h
- UV index
- 3
Sunrise 07:42 · Sunset 17:52
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 9°, lows 4° – 5°, precipitation 0 mm
Sat, Nov 7
Light rain
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 0.5 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 36%
- Wind
- 28 km/h, gusts 55 km/h
- UV index
- 3.4
Sunrise 07:43 · Sunset 17:51
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 8° – 10°, lows 2° – 4°, precipitation 0.3 – 0.6 mm
Sun, Nov 8
Partly cloudy
- High
- 5°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 21%
- Wind
- 34 km/h, gusts 61 km/h
- UV index
- 2.7
Sunrise 07:44 · Sunset 17:50
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 5°, lows 0° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 0.8 mm
Mon, Nov 9
Mostly clear
- High
- 8°
- Low
- -1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 15%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
- UV index
- 3.2
Sunrise 07:45 · Sunset 17:48
Confidence: high
ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 8°, lows -2° – -1°, precipitation 0 mm
Tue, Nov 10
Overcast
- High
- 10°
- Low
- -2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 8%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:47
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 12°, lows -3° – 0°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Wed, Nov 11
Overcast
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 11%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 35 km/h
- UV index
- 2.3
Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:46
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 8°, lows 1° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Thu, Nov 12
Partly cloudy
- High
- 10°
- Low
- 1°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 17%
- Wind
- 16 km/h, gusts 29 km/h
- UV index
- 3.1
Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:45
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 11°, lows -2° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Fri, Nov 13
Drizzle
- High
- 6°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 6 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 19 km/h, gusts 37 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:50 · Sunset 17:44
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 6° – 9°, lows 3° – 4°, precipitation 0 – 5.7 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sat, Nov 14
Drizzle
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 3°
- Precipitation
- 1.8 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 18%
- Wind
- 14 km/h, gusts 27 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: medium
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 13°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 0 – 2.1 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Sun, Nov 15
Fog
- High
- 9°
- Low
- 2°
- Precipitation
- 0 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 17%
- Wind
- 18 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
- UV index
- 2.6
Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:43
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 13°, lows 2° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
Mon, Nov 16partial day
Drizzle
- High
- 8°
- Low
- 4°
- Precipitation
- 0.2 mm
- Chance of precipitation
- 25%
- Wind
- 17 km/h, gusts 33 km/h
- UV index
- 0.4
Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:42
The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.
Confidence: low
ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 2° – 7°, precipitation 0.2 – 0.3 mm
ICON: no forecast for this day
How the confidence is worked out
Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:
- ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
- ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
- GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service
When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.
ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.
The level is the lower of these two:
- Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
- Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm
A day that only one model reaches has no level.
The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.