14-day forecast Tsageri

Forecast as of Nov 5, 02:17

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Farm weather: frost, hail, spraying windows and soil

Each day also shows how well three weather models agree on it: what the confidence means.

Thu, Nov 5

Rain

High: 12°
Low: 5°
Precipitation: 52.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 100%
Wind: 10 km/h, gusts 22 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:47 · Sunset 17:57

Confidence: high

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 11° – 13°, lows 5° – 7°, precipitation 49.7 – 52.9 mm

Fri, Nov 6

Fog

High: 10°
Low: 3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 11%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:48 · Sunset 17:56

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 3° – 7°, precipitation 0 – 5.3 mm

Sat, Nov 7

Light rain

High: 10°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 12.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 93%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 15 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:49 · Sunset 17:55

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 10°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 10 – 16 mm

Sun, Nov 8

Light rain

High: 6°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 4.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 84%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 13 km/h
UV index: 2.1

Sunrise 07:51 · Sunset 17:54

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 4° – 7°, lows -1° – 3°, precipitation 4.4 – 36.4 mm

Mon, Nov 9

Snow showers

High: 6°
Low: 1°
Precipitation: 2.6 mm
Chance of precipitation: 20%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 3.5

Sunrise 07:52 · Sunset 17:53

Confidence: medium

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 5° – 7°, lows -3° – 1°, precipitation 0 – 9.5 mm

Tue, Nov 10

Snow showers

High: 9°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0.1 mm
Chance of precipitation: 3%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 3.2

Sunrise 07:53 · Sunset 17:52

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 7° – 11°, lows -8° – 2°, precipitation 0 – 0.2 mm

Wed, Nov 11

Overcast

High: 12°
Low: 4°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 18%
Wind: 8 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 07:54 · Sunset 17:51

Confidence: low

ECMWF, ICON, and GFS: highs 9° – 14°, lows -8° – 4°, precipitation 0 mm

Thu, Nov 12

Drizzle

High: 8°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 8.3 mm
Chance of precipitation: 29%
Wind: 4 km/h, gusts 18 km/h
UV index: 0.4

Sunrise 07:56 · Sunset 17:50

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 9° – 16°, lows -4° – 7°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Fri, Nov 13

Fog

High: 11°
Low: -6°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 24%
Wind: 7 km/h, gusts 25 km/h
UV index: 3

Sunrise 07:57 · Sunset 17:49

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 10° – 20°, lows -4° – 8°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sat, Nov 14

Overcast

High: 13°
Low: -3°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 14%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 1.4

Sunrise 07:58 · Sunset 17:48

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 14° – 18°, lows -3° – 9°, precipitation 0 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Sun, Nov 15

Overcast

High: 15°
Low: -1°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 16%
Wind: 6 km/h, gusts 21 km/h
UV index: 2.8

Sunrise 07:59 · Sunset 17:47

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 17° – 19°, lows 0° – 8°, precipitation 0 – 5.2 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Mon, Nov 16

Overcast

High: 14°
Low: 2°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 36%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 17 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 08:01 · Sunset 17:46

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 8° – 16°, lows 2° – 5°, precipitation 0 – 22.1 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

Tue, Nov 17partial day

Overcast

High: 16°
Low: 0°
Precipitation: 0 mm
Chance of precipitation: 41%
Wind: 5 km/h, gusts 19 km/h
UV index: 2.9

Sunrise 08:02 · Sunset 17:45

The forecast ends at 23:00, so this day's totals leave out the last hour.

Confidence: low

ECMWF and GFS: highs 7° – 14°, lows 2° – 3°, precipitation 1.6 – 5 mm

ICON: no forecast for this day

How the confidence is worked out

Forecasts are worked out by weather models: computer simulations of the atmosphere. The confidence compares three of the world's leading global models:

ECMWF: the model of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts
ICON: the model of the Deutscher Wetterdienst, Germany's national weather service
GFS: the Global Forecast System of the US National Weather Service

When the models agree, the forecast is more certain; when they differ, the day is harder to forecast and its weather may turn out otherwise. Agreement means more certainty, not certainty: all three models can be wrong together.

ICON's forecast reaches about a week ahead, ECMWF's and GFS's about two weeks: each day shows only the models that reach it.

The level is the lower of these two:

Highs and lows: high when the models' highs are within 2° of each other, and their lows too; medium within 4°; low beyond that
Precipitation: medium when the models disagree on whether the day is wet (1 mm or more); low when one of them has 10 mm or more and another less than 1 mm

A day that only one model reaches has no level.

The models' forecasts: ECMWF, the Deutscher Wetterdienst and NOAA, through Open-Meteo.